Population Demography

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PopulationDemography

Courseinstructor:

Giventhe abundance and diversity of literature, it is useful to summarizeand increase access to information regarding the majordemographic characteristics, processes and trends evident in a localgovernment area. As new evident is constantly emerging, this reportdoes not seek to provide definitive conclusions about the demographiccharacteristics and trends evident in Victoria which is my chosenlocal government area in this case. Rather, it draws upon key studiesand synthesizes the main findings related to the selected localenvironment area. Victoria is a state in the south-east of Australia.It is the most populous state in Australia and also second mostdensely populated state overall. Most of its population is located isareas surrounding Port Phillip Bay. The main objectives in thisreport are to investigate the general demographic characteristics,processes and trends evident in Victoria for instance, the populationchange: growth and decline, fertility and mortality trends andprocesses, crude rates, age-specific rates, migration populationstructure and last sex and dependency ratios (Haugen, 2012).

Method

Thepopulation of Victoria as at April 2013 was estimated to beapproximately six million (6,000,000) and the population of theentire Australia was estimated to be approximately twenty threemillion and four hundred thousand (23,400,000). We can thereforemanipulate the percentage of Victoria in Australia by dividing thepopulation of Victoria by the total population of Australia andmultiplying it by one hundred as shown below.

=6,000,000 /23,400,000 x 100 = 25.6%. Thus, we conclude that Victoriais 25% of total population in Australia.

Victoriapopulation is increasing at a higher rate. As per the end of 2013,the population growth was reported to be two per cent or a hundredand eleven thousand people (111,000). The reason for this fastincrease in population was overseas migration, births and interstatearrivals. The infants born were recorded to be forty one thousand(41,000). From the number of births, we can calculate the crude birthrate which will be given by the total number of births divided by thepopulation multiplied by a thousand as shown below.

Crudebirth rate = birth/population*1000

=41,000/6,000,000*1000 = 7 thus we can conclude that 7 infants areborn per every 1000 population.

Onsimilar lines, we can calculate the crude death rate. This is bytaking the number of deaths divided by the population and multipliedby 1000. For instance, in 2013, Victoria had recorded a roughlyestimate of 32,000 deaths. We can therefore calculate the crude deathrate as shown below.

=32,000/6,000,000*1000 = 0.5

Thisimplies that there is 0.5 deaths in every 1000 population.

In2013, the infant mortality rate for males in Victoria was 3.5 infantdeaths per every 1000 live birth. This was lower compared to 4.9 in2000 and 4.1 infant mortality rate for males in 2009. From the trend,the infant mortality rate for males is declining with time. On theother hand, the infant mortality for females in Victoria was recordedto be 2.6 deaths per every 1000 live birth, a decrease compared to3.2 infant mortality rates for females in 2009 and 4.3 infant deathrates for females in 2000. From then above observations, the infantmortality for female is also decreasing. Generally, the total infantmortality in Victoria is declining with time. Why is this trend?Reasons will be discussed in the next section.

Howeffective internal migration is in redistributing is measured usingthe migration effectiveness ratio. It relates net migration (thedifference between arrivals and departure) to the total population(sum of arrivals and departures) of any area expressed as apercentage. The effectiveness ration ranges between -100 and 100.When the ratio is -100, it implies that there were departures and noany arrivals and if the effectiveness ratio is 100, this implies thatthere was arrival and no any departure. However, an effective ratioshould be greater than 15%. This will simply imply an efficientpopulation increase. For instance, the in-migrants and out-migrantsof the population for Victoria in 2006, was recorded to be 96,000 and23,000 respectively. Thus, the migration efficiency ratio will be asfollow

(96,000-23,000)/96,000+23,000*100= 61.3%.

Thisimplies that the population is growing steady and that the arrivalswere more that the departure.

Populationpyramids also known as age-sex pyramids, are a basic but mosteffective method of examining the age and sex structure of apopulation, and particularly how these change with time. Doneproperly, they can give an immediate visual impression of, forinstance, sudden increases and declines in fertility, the ageselective impacts of migration (in and out) and changes in mortality.They are normally useful in comparing two or more populations. Forinstance in Victoria, we compare the relation between males andfemales in a certain year. The number of infants on female sideappears to be greater than on the male side. From 70 years and above,the number of both female and males appear to be the same.

Demographicratios are also commonly used means of comparing population. Tworatios that are particularly important in comparing population aresex ratio and dependency ratios. Sex ratio is calculated by takingthe number of males dividing by the number of females in the samepopulation. It is normally expressed as the number of male per 100females. For instance in Victoria, the number of females was recordedas two million six hundred thousand (2,600,000) in 2009 and thenumber of female reported to be three million four hundred thousand(3,400,000) in the same year. Thus the sex ratio can be calculated asfollows

2,600,000/3,400,000*100= 76.

Thereforewe can conclude that the sex ratio is 76 males per every 100 females.Sex ratio is however affected by some factors. First and foremost theinfant mortality of both genders affects the sex ratio. Secondly isthe migration both in-migration and out-migration. Either the numberof males or females migrating will affect the sex ratio.

Dependencyratio is the proportion of the assumed non-economically activesegment of the population against the assumed economically activesegment. The dependency ratio is often referred to in the economicanalysis. The most efficient formula of calculating the dependencyratio is as given below.

(0-14years + 65years and above)/(15-64years)*100

Thiscan be illustrated mathematically using the data below from Victoriarecorded in 2010.

0-14 years

15-64years

65years and above

7,300,000

25,000,000

11,450,000

Thedependency ratio will be given by:

(7,300,000+11,450,000)/25,000,000*100 = 75

Thehigher dependency ratio implies that the retired people will pay lesstax and therefore the young people who are working have theresponsibility of paying tax. The increase in dependency ratio alsoimplies that there is an increase in government spending. This is sobecause the government will use a lot of funds in pension to pay theretired people. Since the dependency ratio is high there is a highnumber of retired individual and with that impact, the amount ofpension will be reduced. People will also be forced to work for longbefore retiring so as to narrow the gap of dependency. In labormarket implications, a high dependency ratio would lead to shortagesof labor as companies struggle to recruit sufficient number ofworkers. The firms will respond by motivating the elderly to stay atwork for long. The firms will also encourage part time working by theold people so as to supplement smaller pensions.

Ineconomic view, high dependency ratio will lead to a decline inproductivity growth. If the government fails to address the issue ofhigh dependency, this may lead to high borrowing and heavy taxationwhich in return reduces economic growth. Socially, the retiredpopulation will make up a bigger share of the population. This meansthey will have a bigger political and becomes so difficult to handle.

Results/discussion

Infantmortality is still a major issue to most states? What are the causesof infant mortality? What are the preventive measures to reduceinfant mortality? In Victoria, though the infant mortality ratedeclines with time, it still remains to be one of the state’schallenges to overcome. The overall infant mortality rate wasrecorded to be 6.1, a figure higher than developed nations likeUnited States of America. The main causes of infant mortality wereinvestigated to be birth defects, low birth weight and prematurity,maternal complications, accidents, unintentional injuries,complications of placenta, cord and membranes, respiratory distressof new born, bacterial sepsis of new born, diseases of thecirculatory system and also neonatal hemorrhage. From the above list,some causes are preventable since most are related to health matterswhile others are inevitable. For instance, in case of unintentionalinjuries mothers should be educated on the safety of handling newborn and also let people with experience handle the new born(Gurrett, 2006).

Pregnancyand childbirth have a great impact on women and their families.Pregnancy-related outcomes are affected by factors such as race,ethnicity, age and income but most importantly the health of themother. Good health care means living a safe, healthy lifestyle andmanaging any current health condition before getting pregnant. Bytaking action on health issues before pregnancy, many future problemsof the baby and the mother can be prevented. Women of a productiveage should take folicid acid and also maintain a balanced diet andweight. Expecting mother should ensure they are physically activeregularly and also quit the use of tobacco. They should also betalking to their health care providers about taking any medicationand also about screening and proper management of chronic diseases.They should also practice the use of proper contraceptives. Expectingmothers should also prevent injuries and considering the safety oftheir homes and families for example to wear seat belts. Other causessuch as curer able diseases, it is the state to ensure that there areevenly distributed health centers with facilities and skilledworkers. The state should also carry out campaigns to educated youngmothers the need for being healthy and practices of ensuring ahealthy life. When all this is attained, cases of infant mortalitywould be a long gone forgotten story and population will groweffectively. According to Keynes theory of production, when thepopulation increases, there is increase in labor force and thus highproduction. This will earn the country revenue that will in turn beused in development. Contraction of more health facilities willcreate employment to those involved in the construction and also forthe doctors. Hospitals will ensure most people are healthy and alwaysget access to health facilities whenever the need arises. The healthfacilities should be accessible, for instance, the roads leading tohospitals should be well maintained. This will help solve the issueof emergency in case one needs urgent medical attendant.

Buildingschools will help greatly in reduction of levels of illiteracy. Thiswill expand people’s minds which they will formulate business ideasand come up with source of income. This will save the government fromspending too much money in feeding the poor and therefore that moneymight be used in the state’s development. This will thereforereduce the rate of too much dependency of individuals to thegovernment for aid and also the government will not depend too muchon other countries for relieve food. Constructing high qualitylearning institutions also reduces the rate of out-migrants who willbe moving to places of high learning. The skills that could be usedto other countries will now be retained in the home country. Thesehigher learning institutions also attract people from other statesthus increasing of the number of in-migrants. The government willalso earn itself extra revenue since a foreign student will pays morethan the local student in terms of school fees. When there arelearned people in a state, the government reduces its cost ofimporting services from other nations which is more expensive andinstead they export theirs services offered by highly skilledindividuals from their own state.

Constructionof learning institutions will enable the people of Victoria be awareof their rights and thus they can fight for their rights in case ofoppression. This will lead to a democratic government where thevoices of the people are heard. Education enable people live ahealthy life since they will have the good knowledge of maintaining agood balanced diet and exercises to make one fit always. There isalso a reduced level of poverty since many people will have sourcesof income that will sustain their living. Education also promoteswomen’s right since they become learned to know their right.Construction of learning institutions will create employment toteachers and thus reducing a state’s level of unemployment.Education will also create greater opportunities to the learnedpeople in terms of jobs and other related areas. Education can alsoincrease population growth indirectly. When people are well learnedand have a good source of income, they will not again engagethemselves into theft cases such as robbery with violence due to lackof money. This will in turn reduce the number of out-migrants whowould be migrating due to cases of insecurity. However, education canhave a negative impact on population. The learned personnel mayrealize that the local government does not offer good salaries andthus they decide to look for employment in other countries. Thisincreases the rate of out-migrants. And when such an incident occurs,it is believe that the economic growth retards (Ipsen, 1996).

Constructionof business premises will have a great impact on a state’s economicstatus and also its population. First and foremost when thegovernment allows foreign direct investor to invest in the state, thestate will earn itself a lot of revenue from the heavy tax charged tothe foreign investors. On similar lines, the government must ensureit does not over tax the foreign investors to discourage them.Instead, the government should use motivating strategies like givingthe foreign investor an agreed span of tax holiday. This will attractmore investors and it will lead to an increase in the governmentrevenue to use it in development. The foreign investors also createroom for employment thus employing the local people. In case of firmput up in a remote area in the country, the investors must ensurethere is proper transport system good roads, proper drainage andalso good telecommunication channels. The will enable the localpeople benefit from these infrastructures.

Whenthe government creates a good business environment, this will alsoattract the domestic investors. People who would have wanted to lookfor an ample business in other states will be forced to change theirminds and instead invest in their local area. The government shouldhighly encourage domestic investments by private sectors by charginga friendly tax that will not turn away the investor. The governmentshould also come up with strategies to assist people in capitalformation either by giving them money as groups or loaning asindividuals. This will ensure the young generation benefits and thusreduces the dependency ratio. A foreign investment increasescompetition among firms. This ensures quality products and of aconvenient price is produced. This will in turn benefit the localpeople (Ipsen, 1996).

Thedisadvantage of allowing foreign investors is that too much ownershipof companies can be a concern, especially on industries that arestrategically important. Investors can use their skills to strip thecompany of its value without adding any. They can sell offunprofitable portions of the company to local, less sophisticatedinvestors (Ipsen, 1996).

Themigration effectiveness rate in Victoria is calculated initially tobe 75. It implied that the in-migrants are greater than out-migrantsand thus an increase in population growth. The Victoria governmentshould come up with measures to ensure that the effectiveness rate is100, implying that there are no any out-migrants. The Victoriagovernment can also reduce the migration effectiveness rate by posingheavy taxations to the foreigner so as to discouraging them frommigrating in to Victoria (Amidon, 2009).

Howcan efficient security have impact on population and its demography?Security is the condition of feeling safe. Every being wants to livein a friendly environment. How would Victoria be if there was nosecurity? Would there be investment? Would there be in-migrants? Aswe can see, security is one of the back bones of a developingcountry. The government should ensure there is efficient security forits people. A secured state will create room for more direct andindirect foreign investors from different countries. Security willalso maintain the local people and thus reducing the out-immigrantsand thus increasing the migration effectiveness rate. Ample securitywill also ensure that the local people working in their environmentwill not look for other places of working due to insecurity sincethere is efficient security provided to them. Security efficiencywill also protect the infant life from careless or unexpectedinjuries and thus increasing the infant birth rates. In general,efficient economic plays a vital role in all sectors. As a result,the state production will hick since there if efficient and securedlabor force (Barlow, 1994).

Improvementof infrastructures also plays a vital role in population demography.For instance, good roads (all weather roads) will make it efficientfor anyone to access health facilities. For example, an infant whowould be at risk will be ferried to the hospital on time thus savingits life and therefore contributing to the increase in infant birthrate. Otherwise, the infant might die thus increasing the infantmortality rate. Another instance is where the mature people meettheir treatments on time and this continuing with their productionactivities. In case of their death, this will have an impact on thepopulation pyramid. Good roads also encourage investors. This enablestheir products to reach the markets in time and hence the marketcycle flows (Amidon, 2009).

Conclusion

Fromthe above study, there are various conclusions that can be deduced.First and foremost, health is the major impact on population. Nearly80% of the population demographic change is affected by health. Lookat the mortality rates all the way migration effectiveness rateswhere people move to look for adequate health facilities. Therefore,the governments must ensure there are efficient and equipped healthfacilities in their states. And in so doing, the population willincrease and thus increase in production.

Alsosecurity must be of high intensive so as to attract foreigners whowill later bring foreign currency to the state and thus an increasein revenue.

Traininginstitutions should be well equipped for learners to efficientlyacquire the knowledge needed in starting up business hence becominggreat entrepreneurs. This will curb case of poverty and unemployment.High literacy levels will ensure everyone emphasizes their rightshence a democrat government.

Infrastructuressuch as roads and telecommunication should be efficient for easymovement of people also to ease the transportation of products to themarkets. Telecommunication should also be made efficient to enablepeople to interact and more so to enable the consumers talk to theirproducers and product suppliers.

Learninginstitutions, health facilities and security sectors should be beefedup to ensure that the population is growing hence increased laborforce to yield more products to earn the government revenue.

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